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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 16 at the 20

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – Dallas Cowboys 10

What Actually Happened

(12:28) 4-J.Elliott 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-A.Siposs.

The Three Options

GO +0.89 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.98 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 20, worth -0.60 EP
KICK +1.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.18 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30, worth -1.18 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model