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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 3 at the 45

Philadelphia Eagles 17 – Dallas Cowboys 30

What Actually Happened

(8:37) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass short middle to 16-Q.Watkins pushed ob at DAL 34 for 11 yards (18-D.Kazee).

The Three Options

GO +0.53 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.18 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 45, worth -2.22 EP
KICK -0.81 EP
  • 39% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.73 EP
PUNT -0.11 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 12, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model