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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 10 at the 22

Philadelphia Eagles 17 – Dallas Cowboys 30

What Actually Happened

(6:02) 4-J.Elliott 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-A.Siposs.

The Three Options

GO +1.08 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +5.17 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 22, worth -0.59 EP
KICK +1.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.25 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 32, worth -1.30 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model