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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 2 at the 11

Dallas Cowboys 30 – Philadelphia Eagles 20

What Actually Happened

(15:00) (Shotgun) 32-C.Clement up the middle to PHI 8 for 3 yards (53-C.Elliss; 95-M.Tuipulotu). PHI-73-M.Wilson was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.

The Three Options

GO +2.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.34 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 11, worth -0.11 EP
KICK +1.79 EP
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 22, worth -0.93 EP
PUNT -0.11 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model