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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 4 at the 47

Philadelphia Eagles 20 – Dallas Cowboys 51

What Actually Happened

(3:29) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass short left to 14-K.Gainwell to DAL 38 for 9 yards (55-L.Vander Esch).

The Three Options

GO +0.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.55 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 47, worth -2.01 EP
KICK -0.71 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.10 EP
PUNT -0.60 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 13, worth -0.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model