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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 10 at the 75

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – Dallas Cowboys 7

What Actually Happened

(3:45) 8-A.Siposs punts 42 yards to DAL 33, Center-45-R.Lovato. 88-C.Lamb pushed ob at DAL 44 for 11 yards (81-R.Rodgers).

The Three Options

GO -2.01 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.97 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 75, worth -4.16 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 32, worth -1.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model