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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 2 at the 4

Jacksonville Jaguars 7 – Indianapolis Colts 3

What Actually Happened

(3:11) 15-M.Wright 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-19-J.Charlton.

The Three Options

GO +3.00 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.30 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 4, worth -0.28 EP
KICK +1.82 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 21, worth -0.87 EP
PUNT -0.50 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.18 EP