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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 5 at the 37

Indianapolis Colts 3 – Jacksonville Jaguars 23

What Actually Happened

(:57) (Shotgun) 2-C.Wentz pass short middle to 11-M.Pittman to JAX 28 for 9 yards (21-N.Lawson) [95-R.Robertson-Harris].

The Three Options

GO +0.88 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.87 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 37, worth -1.71 EP
KICK -0.06 EP
  • 53% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 47% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 46, worth -2.44 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model