Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 12 at the 59

Indianapolis Colts 3 – Jacksonville Jaguars 23

(9:51) (Shotgun) 2-C.Wentz pass incomplete deep left to 1-P.Campbell (32-T.Campbell) [95-R.Robertson-Harris].

The Three Options

GO -0.87 EP

What Happened

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.85 EP
65% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 59, worth -2.86 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

Chose GO ✓ matched the model