4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 2 at the 41

Jacksonville Jaguars 26 – Indianapolis Colts 11

What Actually Happened

(2:06) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence right end to IND 38 for 3 yards (37-K.Willis).

The Three Options

GO -0.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +1.14 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 41, worth -2.14 EP
KICK -0.94 EP
  • 41% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.13 EP
  • 59% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -2.38 EP
PUNT -1.10 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 12, worth -1.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model