Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 12 at the 82

Miami Dolphins 17 – New England Patriots 7

(3:32) 5-M.Palardy punts 63 yards to NE 19, Center-44-B.Ferguson, downed by MIA-86-M.Hollins.

The Three Options

GO -2.54 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.73 EP
70% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 82, worth -4.40 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model