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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 7 at the 31

Miami Dolphins 24 – New England Patriots 10

What Actually Happened

(11:00) 7-J.Sanders 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

The Three Options

GO +0.13 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.28 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 31, worth -1.86 EP
KICK +0.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.36 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 41, worth -2.51 EP
PUNT -0.84 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.84 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model