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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 3 at the 72

Miami Dolphins 27 – New England Patriots 17

What Actually Happened

(4:59) 5-M.Palardy punts 57 yards to NE 15, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 80-G.Olszewski to NE 24 for 9 yards (43-A.Van Ginkel; 57-B.Scarlett).

The Three Options

GO -1.49 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.00 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 72, worth -4.13 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.52 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 30, worth -1.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model