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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 3 at the 36

Atlanta Falcons 3 – New Orleans Saints 7

What Actually Happened

(10:36) 7-Y.Koo 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-19-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +0.87 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.92 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 36, worth -1.77 EP
KICK +0.52 EP
What Happened
  • 68% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.93 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 46, worth -2.52 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP