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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 3 at the 59

Atlanta Falcons 6 – New Orleans Saints 24

What Actually Happened

(13:40) 19-T.Morstead punts 45 yards to NO 14, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 11-D.Harris.

The Three Options

GO -0.32 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.56 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 59, worth -3.15 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.67 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 18, worth -0.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP