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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 1 at the 55

New Orleans Saints 24 – Atlanta Falcons 6

What Actually Happened

(10:08) 79-J.Mills reported in as eligible. 15-T.Siemian right guard to NO 45 for no gain (6-D.Fowler, 90-M.Davidson). Penalty on NO, Illegal Formation, declined.

The Three Options

GO +0.79 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.55 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 55, worth -3.04 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.80 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 16, worth -0.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model