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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 2 at the 84

New Orleans Saints 24 – Atlanta Falcons 6

What Actually Happened

(4:12) 4-B.Gillikin punts 52 yards to ATL 32, Center-49-Z.Wood. 35-A.Williams to ATL 44 for 12 yards (55-K.Elliss).

The Three Options

GO -1.57 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth +0.57 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 84, worth -4.95 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -2.28 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 42, worth -2.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EP