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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 9 at the 9

New Orleans Saints 24 – Atlanta Falcons 13

What Actually Happened

(10:59) 19-B.Maher 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin.

The Three Options

GO +1.23 EP
  • 28% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.56 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 9, worth -0.43 EP
KICK +1.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 21, worth -1.14 EP
PUNT -0.56 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model