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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 1 at the 63

New Orleans Saints 30 – Atlanta Falcons 13

What Actually Happened

(4:24) 4-B.Gillikin punts 48 yards to ATL 15, Center-49-Z.Wood, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.46 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 63, worth -2.87 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.45 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 21, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.59 EP