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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 10 at the 19

Atlanta Falcons 13 – New Orleans Saints 30

What Actually Happened

(1:12) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep middle to 14-R.Gage to NO 1 for 18 yards (29-P.Adebo).

The Three Options

GO +0.76 EP
What Happened
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +4.06 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 19, worth -0.39 EP
KICK +2.23 EP
Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.46 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 29, worth -0.67 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.46 EP