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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 4 at the 29

Buffalo Bills 10 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(13:30) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short right to 13-G.Davis.

The Three Options

GO +1.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.43 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 29, worth -1.26 EP
KICK +1.00 EP
  • 74% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 39, worth -1.96 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model