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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 4 at the 76

Buffalo Bills 10 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(5:31) 3-M.Haack punts 21 yards to BUF 45, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-44-T.Matakevich.

The Three Options

GO -1.39 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +0.99 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 76, worth -4.27 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.85 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 34, worth -1.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP