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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 5 at the 40

New York Jets 0 – Buffalo Bills 10

What Actually Happened

(3:59) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass short middle to 88-K.Cole for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +0.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.53 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 40, worth -1.88 EP
KICK -0.63 EP
  • 44% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -2.73 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model