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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 1 at the 66

Buffalo Bills 10 – New York Jets 7

What Actually Happened

(3:09) 3-M.Haack punts 22 yards to NYJ 44, Center-69-R.Ferguson, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.66 EP
  • 25% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 66, worth -3.51 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.06 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 24, worth -1.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.41 EP