Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 13 at the 82

Buffalo Bills 13 – New York Jets 7

(8:42) 3-M.Haack punts 53 yards to NYJ 29, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 88-K.Cole to NYJ 32 for 3 yards (33-S.Neal, 25-T.Jones).

The Three Options

GO -2.60 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.27 EP
64% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 82, worth -4.78 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model