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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 19 at the 93

New York Jets 10 – Buffalo Bills 13

What Actually Happened

(12:45) 7-B.Mann punts 53 yards to BUF 40, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 23-M.Hyde to BUF 49 for 9 yards (43-D.Phillips; 1-K.Nacua).

The Three Options

GO -3.68 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +1.09 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 93, worth -5.50 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (110 yards).

PUNT -2.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 51, worth -2.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model