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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 1 at the 66

New York Jets 0 – Buffalo Bills 7

What Actually Happened

(9:11) 7-B.Mann punts 59 yards to BUF 7, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-34-J.Hardee.

The Three Options

GO -0.26 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.23 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 66, worth -3.89 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.18 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 24, worth -1.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.92 EP