Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 15 at the 80

New York Jets 10 – Buffalo Bills 20

(7:36) 7-B.Mann punts 28 yards to NYJ 48, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-48-N.Bawden.

The Three Options

GO -2.68 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.69 EP
70% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 80, worth -4.51 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model