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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 10 at the 23

Buffalo Bills 7 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(2:36) 2-T.Bass 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-3-M.Haack.

The Three Options

GO +1.19 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +5.22 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 23, worth -0.79 EP
KICK +1.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.12 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 33, worth -1.54 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model