Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 7 at the 77

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 3

What Actually Happened

(11:36) 4-S.Koch punts 44 yards to PIT 33, Center-46-N.Moore. 14-R.McCloud to PIT 40 for 7 yards (85-E.Tomlinson). PENALTY on PIT-27-M.Allen, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PIT 39.

The Three Options

GO -1.76 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.69 EP
59% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 77, worth -4.20 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model