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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 7 at the 42

Pittsburgh Steelers 3 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(8:52) 6-P.Harvin punts 26 yards to BAL 16, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 13-D.Duvernay.

The Three Options

GO -0.16 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.61 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 42, worth -2.35 EP
KICK -0.48 EP
  • 54% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.58 EP
  • 46% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -2.89 EP
PUNT -0.58 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 12, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP