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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 4 at the 56

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(12:49) 6-P.Harvin punts 36 yards to BAL 20, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 13-D.Duvernay.

The Three Options

GO -0.62 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.50 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 56, worth -3.47 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -1.20 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 17, worth -1.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP