Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 8 at the 79

Pittsburgh Steelers 3 – Baltimore Ravens 0

(4:39) 6-P.Harvin punts 49 yards to BAL 30, Center-46-C.Kuntz, downed by PIT-42-J.Pierre.

The Three Options

GO -2.27 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.22 EP
61% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 79, worth -4.52 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model