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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 11 at the 43

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 3

What Actually Happened

(2:43) 4-S.Koch punts 36 yards to PIT 7, Center-46-N.Moore, downed by BAL-80-M.Boykin.

The Three Options

GO -0.13 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.79 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 43, worth -1.84 EP
KICK -0.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.05 EP
  • 49% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.40 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model