Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 10 at the 93

Pittsburgh Steelers 3 – Baltimore Ravens 0

(1:52) 6-P.Harvin punts 33 yards to PIT 40, Center-46-C.Kuntz, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -3.15 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 83, worth +0.68 EP
63% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 93, worth -5.44 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (110 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model