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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 6 at the 6

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 3

What Actually Happened

(:14) 9-J.Tucker 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO +2.49 EP
  • 35% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.90 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 6, worth +0.11 EP
KICK +2.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.96 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.03 EP
PUNT +0.00 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model