4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 2 at the 22

Pittsburgh Steelers 3 – Baltimore Ravens 10

What Actually Happened

(7:45) 9-C.Boswell 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

The Three Options

GO +2.11 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.61 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 22, worth -0.95 EP
KICK +1.53 EP
What Happened
  • 90% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 32, worth -1.65 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP