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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 2 at the 58

Baltimore Ravens 10 – Pittsburgh Steelers 6

What Actually Happened

(5:40) 4-S.Koch punts 23 yards to PIT 35, Center-46-N.Moore, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.20 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.35 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 58, worth -3.03 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.49 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 18, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EP