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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q3
Baltimore Ravens
4th & 1 at the 17
Baltimore Ravens 10 – Pittsburgh Steelers 6
What Actually Happened
(1:09) 2-T.Huntley up the middle to PIT 15 for 2 yards (57-M.Adams).
The Three Options
GO
+3.04 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.89 EP
- 34% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 17, worth -0.53 EP
KICK
+1.97 EP
- 94% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
- 6% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 27, worth -0.92 EP
PUNT
+0.09 EP
- Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.09 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
