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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 18 at the 50

Pittsburgh Steelers 6 – Baltimore Ravens 10

What Actually Happened

(10:01) 6-P.Harvin punts 36 yards to BAL 14, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 13-D.Duvernay.

The Three Options

GO -1.11 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.78 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 50, worth -2.67 EP
KICK -1.16 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -2.67 EP
PUNT -0.70 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 14, worth -0.70 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model