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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 1 at the 77

Baltimore Ravens 10 – Pittsburgh Steelers 6

What Actually Happened

(8:19) 4-S.Koch punts 50 yards to PIT 27, Center-46-N.Moore. 14-R.McCloud to 50 for 23 yards (30-C.Westry).

The Three Options

GO -0.43 EP
Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +1.07 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 77, worth -4.40 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.55 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 34, worth -1.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.12 EP