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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 2 at the 28

Baltimore Ravens 10 – Pittsburgh Steelers 13

What Actually Happened

(1:17) 9-J.Tucker 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO +0.89 EP
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +2.08 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 28, worth -0.62 EP
KICK +1.87 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 83% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.47 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 38, worth -1.06 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model