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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 1 at the 56

Pittsburgh Steelers 13 – Baltimore Ravens 13

What Actually Happened

(:44) 6-P.Harvin punts 38 yards to BAL 18, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 13-D.Duvernay.

The Three Options

GO +0.28 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +0.90 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 56, worth -1.17 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.16 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 17, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP