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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 9 at the 54

Pittsburgh Steelers 3 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(12:28) 6-P.Harvin punts 34 yards to BAL 20, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 13-D.Duvernay.

The Three Options

GO -1.10 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.79 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 54, worth -3.13 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.88 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 16, worth -0.88 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model