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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 3 at the 23

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Seattle Seahawks 7

What Actually Happened

(11:48) 5-M.Prater 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee.

The Three Options

GO +2.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.64 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 23, worth -0.53 EP
KICK +1.97 EP
What Happened
  • 89% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.36 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 33, worth -1.15 EP
PUNT +0.26 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth +0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model