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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 6 at the 19

Seattle Seahawks 14 – Arizona Cardinals 10

What Actually Happened

(1:25) 5-J.Myers 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +1.36 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +4.87 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 19, worth -0.74 EP
KICK +1.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 29, worth -1.23 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model