4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 1 at the 79

Arizona Cardinals 24 – Seattle Seahawks 17

What Actually Happened

(4:48) 14-A.Lee punts 48 yards to SEA 31, Center-46-A.Brewer. 18-F.Swain to SEA 38 for 7 yards (46-A.Brewer, 35-T.Whitehead). PENALTY on SEA-34-J.Johnson, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at SEA 38.

The Three Options

GO -0.45 EP
Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +0.99 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 79, worth -4.48 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -1.77 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 36, worth -1.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.32 EP