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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 1 at the 66

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Seattle Seahawks 7

What Actually Happened

(11:09) 14-A.Lee punts 57 yards to SEA 9, Center-46-A.Brewer. 18-F.Swain to SEA 22 for 13 yards (81-D.Daniels).

The Three Options

GO +0.49 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.03 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 66, worth -3.52 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.46 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 24, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.95 EP