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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 18 at the 18

Arizona Cardinals 27 – Seattle Seahawks 38

What Actually Happened

(1:17) 5-M.Prater 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee.

The Three Options

GO +1.12 EP
  • 22% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.34 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 18, worth -0.37 EP
KICK +2.19 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.40 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 28, worth -0.71 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model