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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 5 at the 52

Seattle Seahawks 7 – Arizona Cardinals 7

What Actually Happened

(7:31) 4-M.Dickson punts 41 yards to ARI 11, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 13-C.Kirk.

The Three Options

GO -0.53 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.69 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 52, worth -3.12 EP
KICK -1.74 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -3.05 EP
PUNT -0.75 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 15, worth -0.75 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model